EternityX has released a new report forecasting strong growth in Chinese outbound travel during the September–November “shoulder season,” highlighting a potential USD 250 billion spending opportunity for the global tourism sector.
The report, Unlocking Shoulder-Season Demand: Chinese Outbound Travel, 2025, projects 155 million outbound trips next year – up 25% year-on-year, as Chinese consumers regain confidence in overseas travel. The shoulder season is emerging as a “value window,” with fares up to 32% lower than summer peaks. Almost two-thirds of agents expect full market recovery by the end of 2025.
Chinese outbound travel 2025 shoulder season- Charlene Ree, CEO and Founder of EternityX
“Chinese travelers are no longer just seasonal nomads, they’re strategic planners seeking value, experiences, and cultural resonance,” said Charlene Ree, CEO and Founder of EternityX. “Our report empowers brands to navigate this shift, turning shoulder-season curiosity into year-round loyalty through data-driven, culturally attuned strategies.”
Shifting Traveller Profiles:
EternityX notes five segments driving the recovery:
· Gen Z digital explorers booking via social platforms.
· Affluent millennials driving long-haul recovery and wellness travel, seeking Europe and wellness retreats
· Family/multigenerational groups, with hotel bookings doubling year-on-year (+103%) during Labour Day, mostly for short-haul trips.
· Silver travellers wielding an estimated 6.7B USD in spending power.
· FIT travel dominates, with rising demand for self-drive (up 60%), while group tours remain 50% below pre-pandemic levels.
Destination Trends:
Visa-free access is accelerating bookings: Malaysia (+43% hotel bookings) and Singapore are leading Asia, alongside K-wave–fuelled growth in South Korea (+48%). Central and Eastern Europe is gaining traction (Bosnia +28.7%, Serbia 88,000 arrivals), while the Middle East reports strong luxury and wellness demand (Abu Dhabi welcomed 1.4 million guests in Q1).
Booking windows remain compressed: 77% of trips are finalised less than 30 days in advance, with nearly half within two weeks. Research typically begins 50–60 days out, positioning September as a crucial conversion period.
Simon Zhong, Head of Insights & Product Innovation at EternityX
“Shoulder season is no longer a lull—it’s a proving ground for loyalty,” said Simon Zhong, Head of Insights & Product Innovation at EternityX. “For global travel brands, this period offers a rare chance to shift from transactional engagement to long-term equity. By fusing AI-driven precision with cultural intelligence, EternityX enables companies to convert short-lived demand spikes into repeatable growth. This is how we’ve helped over 1,200 brands worldwide turn seasonal volatility into sustained market advantage.
Golden Week Outlook:
The combined October 1–8 National Day and Mid-Autumn holidays are expected to generate 11.8–12.4 million trips, with itineraries stretching to 10–14 days. Europe, Turkey, and Kenya are cited as high-demand destinations for luxury and cultural experiences.
Recommendations for Brands
EternityX suggests a set of strategies for travel and hospitality players to capitalise on this momentum:
· Act early in September with urgency-led campaigns to capture late decision-makers ahead of Golden Week.
· Leverage visa-free and cost-advantage destinations in marketing communications.
· Tailor messaging by segment—Gen Z on Xiaohongshu/Douyin, families with safety packages, millennials and seniors with premium wellness offers.
· Use short-burst campaigns three to four weeks before Golden Week.
· Retarget post-holiday with offers on winter escapes to build year-round loyalty.
